Britain`s hopes for a post-Brexit trade deal with the US have all but evaporated, with the exception of a dramatic change of heart by Joe Biden, as it turned out on Tuesday when Boris Johnson held face-to-face talks at the White House. There is still no clear picture of the economic consequences of Britain`s exit from the EU, as the country is only one year away from the union, but from a political point of view, Brexit has succeeded, he said. The UK is sovereign and the country has already signed 63 trade agreements with other countries. Predictably, if a presidential government changes, there have been some delays with the new Biden administration, but Dr. Beech hopes a trade deal between the U.K. and the U.S. will be signed later this year. The election of President-elect Biden in November will usher in an entirely new political agenda, initially focusing almost exclusively on the United States. Domestic policy priorities that create uncertainty in the agreement and further complicate an already tight timeline for the further development of the agreement. President-elect Biden and his team have made it clear that domestic issues will prevail, at least initially. On trade in particular, he said, “I will not make a new trade deal with anyone until we make big investments here at home and in our workers.” Campaign sources further stressed that “new laws on COVID, the economy, immigration, infrastructure and climate change would come first.” As for the free trade deal, Biden`s advisers said he would “certainly not” prioritize a deal between the U.S.

and the U.K. in the first 100 days, which clearly makes reaching a deal before the APT expires a non-starter. This report was published by the Congressional Research Service on February 12, 2020. It contains information on the relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom, free trade agreements and the prospects for this particular relationship. “I think the trade partnership between Britain and California is really crucial,” Beech says. “I think in a way, what has been done in the past is a very solid foundation for the future, and I`d like to think that when the negotiators meet in the coming months between the US government and the UK government, the knowledge we have between the California and UK business communities can serve as an example. how Anglo-American trade can progress. From a broader foreign policy perspective, it is unfortunate that the Biden administration has not worked more vigorously and strategically with Britain to accelerate the transatlantic economic recovery.

Washington has chosen to deprioritize and perhaps derail a unique opportunity to pursue a partnership with London in the Brexit era by effectively slowing down negotiations on a bilateral free trade agreement. Asked about the prospects for a deal, when the two met in the Oval Office, the US president said: “We`re going to talk a little bit about trade today, and we`re going to have to work on that.” Of course, the ongoing Brexit negotiations overshadow all of this from an American perspective. some circles argue that it would make more sense for the UK to first draft its trade agreements with the EU, followed by the US. Indeed, it would have proved difficult to reach agreement in some areas of the negotiations without providing additional clarity on the position or position of the UK-EU relationship. In addition, the politics surrounding Ireland and the 1998 Good Friday Agreement are lurking in the background. President-elect Biden and leading Democrats in Congress have indicated that the United States will not allow a trade deal if peace in Northern Ireland is threatened. The candidate at the time, Biden, hinted in a tweet that any trade deal would depend on “respecting the agreement and preventing the return of a hard border.” That`s it. It also argues for the conclusion of Brexit negotiations in order to pave the way for this complex issue.

The February 25 event, titled “California-UK After Brexit: Prospects for Partnership,” was moderated by Allan Zaremberg, President and CEO of CalChamber, and included a presentation by Dr. Beech analyzing what Brexit means for future business partnerships. the ongoing trade agreement between the United Kingdom and the United States; and trade relations between the United Kingdom and California. In summary, given the APT`s incredibly tight timeline and the issues that remain to be negotiated, the near-term prospects for a US-UK deal look bleak. While political support for Congress remains, the APT is a critical condition, and since the administration focuses on national economic priorities, it is unlikely to be an integral part of trade negotiations for at least a year or more. However, the relationship between the US and the UK remains strong and important for both countries, and for companies working “across the Atlantic”, there could be other more limited areas where countries can reach an agreement in the meantime, such as . B a smaller investment agreement or specific tariff relief. But don`t be surprised if the free trade agreement comes back later, while the U.S. economy is growing, the pandemic is behind us, and the post-Brexit Biden administration is looking for a political victory with economic and strategic benefits for the U.S. and a key ally. However, this should not be seen as a criticism that Biden is against trade or free trade agreements. True, and at the risk of over-generalization, it is widely perceived in the United States that Republicans are the pro-trade party (at least that was the case before Trump`s victory in 2016), while Democrats are more skeptical of trade and international trade agreements.

But at least at the presidential level, several trade deals have been reached with Democrats in the White House. [4] And President-elect Biden arguably has a good track record on this issue compared to the rest of his party, supporting NAFTA and Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) for China as a senator, and later the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the 2015 TPA as Obama`s vice president. In fact, one could argue that the best political recipe for promoting trade deals is a Democrat in the White House and Republicans in charge of Congress. If the Senate remains in Republican hands (we`ll know for sure after the senate`s two rounds of voting in Georgia on January 5) and Republicans in the House of Representatives have an extremely strong majority, that recipe could very well be there for the next two years. The United States and the United Kingdom have worked closely together on climate, but little progress has been made in deepening trade relations in recent months. Last week, Biden appointed chief agricultural trade negotiator Elaine Trevino and has yet to appoint a new ambassador to London. Agriculture would probably be a key element of any agreement. The entire UK economy has proven remarkably robust, surviving slowdowns caused by multiple COVID-19 lockdowns and tight restrictions.

As the De Fitch Ratings report points out, “better alignment of businesses with economic constraints and greater resilience of private consumption and investment” have led to a better-than-expected economic outlook for the UK. On the positive side, Americans` views on trade are stronger today than they have been in the past, despite a stormy 2016 presidential campaign in which candidate Trump lamented America`s “trade deficit” and argued that America was “ripped off.” According to Gallup, Americans` broad view of trade is the “most positive in a quarter of a century,” with 74 percent of Americans believing that trade represents an “opportunity for economic growth through increased U.S. exports.” And polls show that the American people want Congress and the president to set aside partisanship, work together, and get things done for the country. Ensuring greater freedom in trade, whether bilateral, regional or multilateral, has proven to be one of the best ways to promote America`s long-term prosperity. President Biden`s blatant inaction to advance free trade signals innovative new trade deals between the United States.